Betting Tips

Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 13th Nov 2021

One of the highlights of the jump calendar this Saturday as we’ve day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting – four LIVE ITV races to take in from Prestbury Park that include the Paddy Power Gold Cup, while we’ve also two decent Listed races at Lingfield as the AW winter season starts to move up a few notches.

Did you know that 12 of the last 19 Paddy Power Gold Cup winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get  GOING!

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.40 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (GBB Race) Cl2 2m ITV

10/10 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Finished first or second last time out
9/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Favourites placed in the first three
9/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Had raced at Cheltenham before (hurdles/chase)
6/10 – Ran at Cheltenham (2), Aintree (2) or Uttoxeter (2) last time out
5/10 – French bred
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
 

2.15 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

19/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
18/19 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
18/19 – Won by a UK-based trainer
15/19 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Carried 11st or less
13/19 – Had won at Cheltenham before
13/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/19 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
9/19 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/19 – Aged 7 years-old
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
5/19 – Won their last race
5/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/19 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/19 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 41 runners
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10.5/1

 

2.50 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

17/19 – Aged 7 or younger
16/19 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
15/19 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
15/19 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
14/19 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
13/19 – Placed favourites
13/19 – Officially rated 126 to 137
13/19  – Ran at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
13/19 – Irish bred
12/19 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
9/19 – Won their last race
7/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/19 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/19 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
5 of the last 13 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017
First Assignment won the race in 2018
Golan Fortune won the race in 2019
On The Blind Side (7/1) won the race in 2020

 

3.25 – Paddy Power Feel Like A Favourite Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

14/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
14/16 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/16 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Favourites unplaced
7/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
8/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/16 – Irish-bred winners
6/16 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – French bred winners
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 8 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 12 winners went onto be placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

 

3.05 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

13/14 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
12/14 – Didn’t win last time out
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Aged 4 or older
11/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Won 5 or more times before
9/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
Judicial won the race in 2019
Good Effort won the race in 2020

 

3.40 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

13/15 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/15 – Rated between 102 and 112
10/15 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Won between 1-4 times before
10/15 – Favourites placed in the top two
10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Placed last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Dubai Warrior won the race in 2020
Master The World (10/1) won the race in 2017 and 2018

 

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