Betting Tips

Horse Racing Free Tips & Trends: Sat 28th Nov 2020

Another bumper Saturday ahead for jump racing fans as the ITV cameras head to Newbury to take in four races, plus they are also up at Newcastle for two. The newly-named Ladbroke Chase Trophy (the Hennessy Gold Cup to any old-timers out there) – is the main event from Newbury – a race that 16 of the last 18 winners have been aged 8 or younger!

While up at Newcastle the Fighting Fifth Hurdle takes centre stage as we get some early-season Champion Hurdle pointers.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

Eight previous runnings
3 of the last 8 winners aged 5 years-old
2 winning favourites (both joint)
6 of the 8 winners carried between 10-10 and 11-6
Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Rebecca Curtis & Ali Stronge have trained the winners

 

2.25 Ladbrokes Gerry Fielden Intermediate Handicap (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) Cl1 2m69y ITV

13/14 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
11/14 – Irish, French or German bred
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/14 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
7/14 – Had raced at Newbury before
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/14 – Aged 5 years-old
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/14 – Won last time out
8 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Epatante (3/1) won the race in 2019
Global Citizen (5/1) won the race in 2018

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/18 – Rated between 140 and 151
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (29 runnings) there have been 14 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

 

3.35- Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

16/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/18 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/18 – French bred
10/18 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/18 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
9/18 – Placed in their last race
9/18 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
10 of the last 14 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Magic Saint (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

18/18 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
16/18 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
16/18 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
15/18 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
15/18 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Officially rated 151 or higher
12/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/18 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/18 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/18 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
4/18 – Won by an Irish based yard
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (4 of last 12)
3/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 6/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

 

3.15 – BetFair Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

15/16 – Didn’t win their last race
14/16 – Irish bred
14/16 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
13/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/16 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Aged 8 years-old
4/16 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Takinrisks (20/1) won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

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