Betting Tips

Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 8th May 2021

So, after last week we’ve now already had two of the five English Classics, but this week with Epsom Oaks and Derby Trials Day at Lingfield we’ll get a chance to take in a few more clues ahead of the next batch of Classics ahead of the June showpieces.

The John Gosden team will be eyeing their fourth Lingfield Oaks Trial since 2017, while the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp will also be looking to enhance their excellent record in the Lingfield Derby Trial – they’ve won 5 of the last 13 renewals.

As well as four races at Lingfield, the ITV cameras are also taking in Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, the old Swinton Hurdle from Haydock Park, while they will also be showing three races at Ascot, that including the ultra-competitive Victoria Cup.

As always, here at JUICESTORM we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips.

 

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

3.10 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

17/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
17/17 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
16/17 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
14/17 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Carried 10-8 or less
9/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
4/17 – Trained by Evan Williams (4 of the last 7 runnings)
3/17 – Ran at Ayr last time out
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 14 winners returned 16/1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Many chances here but with 16 of the last 17 runners carrying 11-5 or less in weight then this trend might help. This would be a negative for the likes of Any News, Shanroe and Teqany, who all have 11-7 or more to carry. ALL of the last 17 winners were aged 5, 6 or 7, so the 8 year-olds in the race – Scarlet Dragon and Didtheyleaveuoutto have this as a negative. Campround beat Rowland Ward by ½ a length at Aintree last time out so there shouldn’t be a lot between the pair here again, while Hopper was a good winner at Cheltenham last time out and has to be respected from the Nicky Henderson yard, who have won this race a few times before. This 5 year-old is up another 7lbs here and had another runner, Nordic Combined, beaten by 3 ½ lengths that day too. Jockey Ben Ffrench Davis is on again and can claim 7lbs – he can go well. However, the call is to side with the Olly Murphy runner – COPPERLESS – who was travelling well last time out in the race Rowland Ward won when falling two out at Aintree. He’s lightly raced with just 5 career runs and the time before beat a horse called Chez Hans and back in October also beat Hooper at Market Rasen off level weights. With only 10-4 to carry and Aidan Coleman riding these are further pluses. Of the rest, the Evan Williams yard have a top record in the race – winning 4 of the last 7 runnings – so their BALLINSKER (e/w) is another to have an interest in. This 6 year-old was only 10 lengths behind The Shunter at Cheltenham in November and that form has been franked since. He was highly-tried in the Betfair Hurdle last time too, but is 3lbs lower and had a nice break in preparation for this.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.55 – Tote+ Exclusively At Tote.Co.UK British EBF Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

14/14 – Failed to win last time out
14/14 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
12/14 – Had won over a mile before
12/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/14 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
8/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
8/14 – Rated between 82-87
7/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The William Haggas yard won this race in 2018 and try again with a horse called Conservative, who had a decent 2 year-old campaign and has to be respected stepping up to a mile for the first time. Lights On was a nice winner at Nottingham last time out and despite being 7lbs higher is another that can go well, while Thank You Next, Separate and Hold Fast are others to consider. But the call here is to side with DREAMLOPER, the only proven CD winner in the field. She returned to the track with a fair fourth (of 13) at Haydock last month but the step back up from 7f to 1m will suit having won well over this trip at this track last September. She beat Perfect Inch that day, who reopposes, and I think she can have her measure again here.

 

2.30 – Tote+ Pays More At Tote.Co.Uk Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Had won 3 or more times before
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Had raced at Ascot before
8/15 – Winning favourites (inc co or joint)
8/15 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/15 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 12 winners ALL came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

Note: The 2020 race was staged at Newmarket

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 12 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5 year-old, then the older horses in the race – Outbox (6), Alounak (6), Deja (6) and Desert Skyline (7) are overlooked. All of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or lower too, so this is a plus for ROBERTO ESCOBARR, GOLD MAZE, LOST EDEN, ALOUNAK and ALBAFLORA. The Stoute yard have a fair record in the race and run Laafy, while the Andrew Balding camp took this prize last time it was run and have Tribal Craft entered. Without A Fight is another that can go well and will be a lot fitter for a recent second at Newbury in the G3 Dubai Duty Free Stakes. But the two that interest me here at GOLD MAZE and ALBAFLORA. The former hails from the Roger Varian yard that have won this race in 2011, 2013 and 2018 so clearly like to target this prize. This 4 year-old is having his debut for the yard after coming over from Ireland (Jessie Harrington), but showed a decent level of form over there – placed at G3 level, and some might remember him being 9th in the Epsom Derby last season too – beaten 11 lengths. Albaflora was last seen running a close second here at Ascot over 1m6f so we know she stays further too. She gets a handy 5lbs fillies’ allowance from most of the others too and being rated 102 in her own right anyway, that 5lb in-hand will be a big plus.

 

3.40 – tote+ Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f  ITV4

15/17 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had won no more than 3 times
13/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Carried 8-10 or less
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had run at Ascot before (5 winners)
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint) – only 1 in the last 11 years
2/17 – Trained by David Elsworth (2 of last 5)
The last 7 winners came from a double-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/1

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Lingfield

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 29 runners here, so super-competitive. But with 12 of the last 17 winners carrying 8-10 or more in weight and the last seven winners coming from a double-figure draw, then this can help knock some out – those that are left are JACK’S POINT, ROPEY GUEST, CHIEFOFCHIEFS, RIVER NYMPH, GREENSIDE, ESCOBAR, SYMBOLIZE, RAISING SAND and MOTAKHAYYEL. If we add in to that 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or younger, then we’ve only JACK’S POINT, ROPEY GUEST, RIVER NYMPH, SYMBOLIZE and MOTAKHAYYEL left. Of that bunch, a chance is taken on MOTAKHAYYEL, SYMBOLIZE and RIVER NYMPH. The former is a CD winner after beating Jack’s Point in the Buckingham Palace Stakes here at the Royal Meeting last June. He’s shot up the handicap since, but has been gelded over the winter and returned at Thirsk last month with a solid second over this 7f trip. He should be a lot fitter for that and the slightly softer ground won’t be an issue. Symbolize is another with form on softer ground should the rain come and ran well too on his return to the track when second at Newmarket last month. The winner of that race looks useful and the fact he didn’t get a clear run in that race suggests he might have got a bit closer too. He was also third in the Jersey Stakes here last summer over this trip, so the track is fine. River Nymph is the final pick. He was a good winner over this CD in July and despite running below par the last twice those runs have been over a mile and he’s not really been getting home. The drop back to 7f will help and this Clive Cox runner also has winning form in soft ground if the rain develops.

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

2.15 – Novibet Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

15/17 – Had won no more than once before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had no more than 3 career runs
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Came from stall 5 or higher
10/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
9/17 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
9/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Having first run of the season
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
4/17 – Winners from stall 5
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
4/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: G3 winner – Divinely – from the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp will be popular here with Ryan Moore riding too. She was last seen running down the field in the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh (1m), but breeding suggests this step up in trip to 1m 3 1/2f will be right up her street. She’s clearly a big player here, but the niggle would be that she’s a lot more exposed than some of the others. She also holds an entry for the Oaks, but you feel will need to impress here to be taken seriously in that race next month – currently around 66/1. Frankie and John Gosden team up with Loving Dream and we can expect her to have improved a lot from her recent Wetherby second, but that was only 13 days ago and this race looks harder. The Gosden camp, who have a good record in the race, also run Regent, but with Frankie preferring to ride Loving Dream, you feel this is their main hope. Godolphin have a chance too – they run Nash Nasha, who kept on well to win at Sandown a few weeks ago. She ran on well that day, but the concern – based on breeding – would still be the extra few furlongs. So, the one that interests me the most is the Martyn Meade-trained TECHNIQUE. This 3 year-old is around 20/1 for the Oaks next month but warmed up for his with a solid second at Epsom last month in the Blue Ribband Trial which is a Listed race. There is plenty of stamina in his breeding to suggest the extra trip will eke out more improvement, while he’s also only had two career runs anyway to make her one of the least exposed runners in the field. Of the rest, Save A Forest is another to note in the betting, while OCEAN ROAD could easily go well too. This 3 year-old was last seen winning at Lingfield easily on the AW in December over a mile, but is up in trip here to a more suitable trip. Her sire is former Derby winner – Australia.

 

2.50 – Novibet Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4 

18/18 – Had won no more than 3 times
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (1 winner, Anthony Van Dyck, 2019)
14/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
High Rise (1998) and Anthony Van Dyck (2019) were the last winners to go onto win the Epsom Derby

JUICESTORM VERDICT: It will, of course, be hard to ignore the O’Brien pair or Kyprios and Carlisle Bay – the former is around 25/1 for the Derby, while the latter is 33/1. They should both also enjoy the step up in trip and the betting on the day should give us a better guide on which of the pair, who are both rated 101, is better fancied by the yard. I expect Scope and Third Realm to improve on their opening runs and they could run better than their odds suggest, but the form I’m going to side with here is that from the Classic Trial at Sandown a few weeks ago. Recovery Run was 9th in that race, with Etonian 7th, but the runner-up ADAYAR is also in here. This Godolphin 3 year-old lost a shoe in that race too, so did well to only be beaten ½ a length at the line. Yes, stamina for this Frankel colt will be a slight question mark over this longer trip, but he ran on well that day and has also got winning form in soft ground if the rain turns up. William Buick, who has won on the horse in the past, rides.

 

3.25 – Novibet Chartwell Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f1y ITV4

14/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
12/14 – Won between 1-4 times before
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Had won over 7f before
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Irish-bred
7/14 – Drawn in stall 3 (4) or 7 (3)
7/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Non UK-trained winners
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 11 winners returned double-figures in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: One of the 3 year-olds in the race – ISABELLA GILES – has to be respected getting 7lbs from the older horses. She’s the joint top-rated in the field anyway with Bounce The Blues, and will be a lot fitter for her return run at Newbury in the Fred Darling Stakes – beaten just 3 lengths. She’s also got winning form on soft ground is the rain comes – she looks the one to beat if back to the level that saw her win the Prestige and Rockfel Stakes last season. The already mentioned Bounce The Blues will also be fitter for a recent run and will also like the drop back to 7f, having not quite seen out the mile last time out. Double Or Bubble certainly caught the eye when winning her race at HQ last time – quickened really well, but the concern would be the ground if it came up soft with all her runs on much quicker ground. That said, there is every chance she’ll handle the soft, we just haven’t seen her on it! Huboor has the services of Ryan Moore and can’t be ruled out with the drop back to 7f in her favour, but in contrast the trip would be a concern for the Henry Candy runner – Jouska – after pulling too hard last time over 6f. German raider Axana has to be respected too, but the other pick is PARENT’S PRAYER. This Archie Watson runner won’t mind the ground getting any softer and has winning form over a mile too, so stamina will be fine. She was last seen running well in Ireland in a G3 (2nd) and from six runs on the turf has only been out of the first three once.

 

4.00 – Download The Novibet App Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7 1/2f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Rated between 85 – 90
3/3 – Carried 9-2 or more
3/3 – Won at least twice before
3/3 – Had won over at least 7f before
3/3 – Had run at the track before
3/3 – Aged between 4-6 (inc)
2/3 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/3 – Ran in the last 2 weeks
2/3 – Carried 9-7 in weight
2/3 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/3 – Winning favourite

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but with the last three winners all carrying 9-2 or more and also aged between 4-6 years-old, then the 7 year-old – Love Dreams, who has 8-11 in weight – is overlooked despite being the only last time out winner in the field. Turn On The Charm is one for the shortlist after a fair return run at Nottingham (4th), but if the ground gets any softer that would be the worry having lost in soft conditions in the past. Any Mark Johnston runners at Lingfield are always respected and Eton College would have a big chance on his win at Musselburgh at the start of April. But he failed to build on that last time at HQ (9th of 12). Yes, the track last time might not have suited and is the winner that day Double Or Bubble – goes well earlier on in the card that would help, but the call is ASAD. The Mick Appleby yard have a cracking 67% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track and this 5 year-old has been running well on the AW of late. He’s got a bit to prove on the grass, but has only run three times on the turf. On a plus, he’s handled softer ground in the past too and Theo Ladd’s 3lb claim will be an added bonus.

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button