Run over 2m Four ½ furlongs the Paddy Energy Gold Cup is the characteristic contest on the three-day Cheltenham Open Assembly, held annually in the midst of November (13th-15th Nov 2020).
The ‘Pond Home’ Pipe secure are the main yard with 9 wins within the race, with Celestial Gold, Our Vic and Nice Endeavour, who gained the competition in 2011, their most-recent winners. In 2017, the BetVictor Gold Cup was gained by the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Splash Of Ginge – a win that gave the yard their third success within the race since 2008 and their 4 general. Whereas final yr (2019) the Kerry Lee-trained Pleased Diva landed the honours beneath jockey Richard Patrick.
Right here at JuiceStorm we check out the 2020 Paddy Energy Gold Cup renewal from a stats angle – this yr run on Saturday 14th November.
Latest Paddy Energy Gold Cup Winners
2018 – Baron Alco (8/1)
2017 – Splash Of Ginge (25/1)
2016 – Taquin Du Seuill (8/1)
2015 – Annacotty (12/1)
2014 – Caid Du Berlais (10/1)
2013 – Johns Spirit (7/1)
2012 – Al Ferof (8/1)
2011 – Nice Endeavour (8/1)
2010 – Little Josh (20/1)
2009 – Tranquil Sea (11/2 fav)
2008 – Imperial Commander (13/2)
2007 – L’Antartique (13/2)
2006 – Unique Dancer (16/1)
2005 – Our Vic (9/2 fav)
2004 – Celestial Gold (12/1)
2003 – Fondmort (3/1 fav)
2002 – Cyfor Malta (16/1)
Paddy Energy Gold Cup Betting Traits
17/17 – Had run at Cheltenham earlier than
16/17 – Had gained over no less than 2m4f over fences earlier than
16/17 – Received by a UK-based coach
13/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter within the betting
12/17 – Had gained at Cheltenham earlier than
12/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Had gained simply 2 or Three instances over fences earlier than
11/17 – Educated by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or much less (However Four of the final 7 carried 10-13 or extra)
11/17 – Completed within the high Four final day trip
9/17 – Received by a horse within the first Three within the betting
9/17 – Aged 7 years-old
8/17 – Received this on their seasonal reappearance
8/17 – Positioned favourites
5/17 – Received their final race
4/17 – Educated by the Pipe secure
4/17 – Ran at Cheltenham final day trip
3/17 – Profitable favourites
3/17 – Educated by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/17 – Educated by Jonjo O’Neill
3/17 – Ran at Carlisle final day trip
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
The final winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 positioned horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his final 37 runners
The common successful SP within the final 17 years is 10/1
There are a number of unfastened ends to tie up with the turf flat season – however actually, it’s full steam forward with the jumpers now with the subsequent six months or so primarily about Nationwide Hunt racing.
For many soar racing followers, the three-day Cheltenham November Assembly (13th-15th Nov) – is the primary large assembly of the brand new season as quite a lot of outdated favourites return to the house of soar racing, plus we get an opportunity to see some early Pageant clues forward of the large one subsequent March.
With three days of high motion from Prestbury Park there are numerous first rate races to absorb nevertheless it’s the Paddy Energy Gold Cup, which is run on the Saturday (14th Nov), that showcases the assembly.
In recent times, high stables like Nigel Twiston-Davies, Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill and the Pipe yard have executed very nicely over the three days, whereas since 1996 these 4 highly effective stables have gained the Paddy Energy Gold Cup am unimaginable 16 instances between them – that’s a 67% strike-rate!
Nonetheless, the final two renewals have seen two new yards be part of the corridor of fame. The Gary Moore camp took the 2018 working with Baron Alco, then twelve months in the past the Kerry Lee-trained Pleased Diva landed the spoils – if lining up once more in 2020, he’ll be trying to grow to be the primary ‘back-to-back’ winner since Bradbury Star, who gained the race in 1993 and 1994.
What are the opposite predominant Paddy Energy Gold Cup developments to appears to be like for?
Course Data – Firstly, having earlier expertise – together with successful kind, on the Cheltenham monitor, is a big bonus. That is backed-up with ALL of the final 18 winners having run at Prestbury Park earlier than, whereas 12 of these 18 (67%) had gained a chase race on the monitor previously too. Final yr’s winner – Pleased Diva – hadn’t gained on the monitor earlier than successful the race however had run nicely there 3 times. It’s additionally value mentioning she went on to run a wonderful second within the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Secure Plate Handicap Chase on the Pageant later that season.
UK-Based mostly Yards Maintain The Key – Okay, it’s a race that not many Irish runners have contested in recent times, so this stat may not maintain quite a lot of weight – an enormous 17 of the final 18 winners got here from UK-based stables. The final Irish-trained winner was Tranquil Sea (2009) and that the one profitable horse from the Emerald Isle within the final 29 runnings. As talked about, the Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Paul Nicholls stables have by far the very best current information – with 16 of the final 24 winners between them.
Age – Subsequent up is to take a look at the age as there’s a first rate sample build up right here. Sure, two of the final 4 winners had been aged 9 years-old, so we definitely can’t rule out this age group. Nonetheless, the higher general report has been with horses aged Eight or youthful – an enormous 15 of the final 18 winners (83%) ticked this age stat! Whereas if you wish to drill into this age development a bit extra then it would pay to notice that 6 or 7 year-olds have gained 12 of the final 18 runnings (67%).
The ultimate factor to notice with the age is to take a look at the opposite finish of the age scale – The final double-figure aged winner was in 1975!
Latest kind – The final run of your fancy is one other factor to take a look at, with 12 of the final 18 winners recorded a high 4 end final day trip. However these high 4 finishes haven’t at all times are available in a current race, as horses which can be making their seasonal reappearances definitely can’t be dominated out. With a high prize on supply then it’s clear trainers can usually work behind the scenes to get their horses match and able to rumble, whereas some simply carry out higher off a break – Eight of the final 18 winners gained this race off a lay-off.
The lightly-raced, or much less uncovered runners, have the higher report too, with 67% of the final 18 winners having solely had 2 or Three earlier wins over fences – once more backing up the youthful, much less uncovered chasers are those to concentrate on.
Weight – With the race being a handicap then weight carried is at all times value contemplating. Of the final 18 renewals, 13 winners (72%) carried 11st or much less and this was backed-up once more within the final three years with the winners having 10st 6lbs, 10st 11lbs and 11st on their backs.
Betting Information – The ultimate development to notice is the betting market. It’s usually a race that punters should not too far off the mark. Subsequently, any help for runners within the build-up needs to be revered and there may be additionally an ante-post market to regulate within the weeks earlier than the race. 14 of the final 18 winners gained at 14/1 or shorter within the betting, whereas although the favourites have gained simply three of the final 18 (17%) we now have seen 44% of the final 18 market leaders positioned. With the winners tending to be priced 14/1 or much less (final yr’s winner returned 14/1) then it’s nonetheless the horses within the first 4 or 5 out there that command probably the most respect.
Issues will begin to hot-up within the ante-post market a number of weeks earlier than this race and it’s usually a contest that we see horses from earlier renewals working in once more. Like final yr’s winner – Pleased Diva, who was really going nicely within the 2018 race too, earlier than being introduced down.
So, in abstract. Horses aged Eight or youthful, which have had earlier monitor expertise and are carrying 11st or much less are definitely worthy of second glances. If any of these have run on the monitor earlier than, completed within the high 4 final day trip and likewise skilled by Pipe, Nicholls, O’Neill and Twiston-Davies yard then you can be onto one thing!
