Run every year on the primary Tuesday in November the Melbourne Cup is dubbed as ‘the race that stops a nation’. Run over 2m it’s the richest handicap run over that distance on the earth.
Staged at Flemington racecourse in Melbourne, Australia the race at all times attracts runners from all corners of the globe, however there are additionally many key tips on ‘learn how to guess on the Melbourne Cup’.
Being a big-field handicap the bookmakers will supply commonplace locations of 1, two, three and 4 if you’re having each-way bets. Nevertheless, with 20+ runners most years then it’s at all times a good suggestion to buy round with the bookmakers as many will supply enhanced place phrases that may typically stretch right down to paying out each-way on the highest six or seven finishers.
In 2017, younger Irish coach, Joseph O’Brien received the profitable £2.5 million first prize to win the race for the primary time, whereas he, the truth is, led residence and Irish 1-2-Three as dad – Aidan O’Brien – skilled the second (Johannes Vermeer), with the Willie Mullins-trained Max Dynamite in third.
Whereas in 2018 we noticed the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin win the race with Cross Counter. Ridden by Aussie jockey, Kerrin McEvoy and skilled by Charlie Appleby. The three year-old additionally led residence a UK-trained 1-2-Three within the race because the Hughie Morrison-trained Marmelo crammed second and Prince Of Arran, from the Charlie Fellowes camp, took third.
In 2019, we noticed the Danny O’Brien-trained Vow And Declare win the race at betting odds of 10/1, with Prince Of Arran, who was third in 2018, second and positioned within the race but once more.
Nevertheless, it’s typically the Australian-based yards that maintain sway within the race – they’ve received 10 of the final 16 runnings.
There are a number of different key Melbourne Cup tendencies and stats to take into the race when looking for the winner. When the ultimate runners are out (usually a couple of days earlier than the race) you should use these tendencies to slender down the massive discipline and spotlight the most effective profiles of current winners.
For instance, ALL of the final 16 Melbourne Cup winners had received at Group Class degree up to now, whereas a large 14 of the final 16 winners had raced within the final 4 weeks. Plus, if you wish to take this pattern a bit additional then 11 of the final 16 winners raced within the final two weeks.
Additionally notice horses that had their prep runs on the Aussie tracks of Flemington, Geelong, Caufield or Moon Valley final day out – 14 of the final 16 winners raced at a type of 4 tracks earlier than profitable the Melbourne Cup.
Regardless of being run over two miles the draw has performed an enormous function too. 14 of the final 16 winners got here from stalls 5 or increased. Taking the draw stat a bit additional then 10 of the final 16 winners got here from stalls 9 or increased.
Subsequent up is to notice the age of your fancy. Why? Properly, despite the fact that we noticed a Three year-old winner in 2017 and 2018, it’s truly price noting that 10 of the final 16 winners have been aged 5 or older.
Contemplating the aggressive nature of the race the market leaders haven’t completed too unhealthy, with three on the final 16 favourites profitable (19%) – with the latest being Fiorente again in 2013. The jollies even have a good report of being positioned with 7 of the final 16 ending within the prime 4.
Lastly, search for horses that completed within the prime three of their most up-to-date race (11 of the final 16), plus had received on the Flemington observe up to now – 7 of the final 16 winners had tasted success on the Aussie course beforehand.
Current Melbourne Cup Winners
2019 – VOW AND DECLARE (10/1)
2018 – CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
2017 – REKINDLING (14/1)
2016 – ALMANDIN (10/1)
2015 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
2014 – PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
2013 – FIORENTE (6/1 fav)
2012 – GREEN MOON (19/1)
2011 – DUNADEN (15/2)
2010 – AMERICAIN (12/1)
2009 – SHOCKING (9/1)
2008 – VIEWED (40/1)
2007 – EFFICIENT (16/1)
2006 – DELTA BLUES (17/1)
2005 – MAKYBE DIVA (17/5 fav)
2004 – MAKYBE DIVA (13/5 fav)
Key Melbourne Cup Betting Tendencies and Stats
16/16 – Had received a Group class race earlier than
14/16 – Had raced inside the final Four weeks
14/16 – Raced at both Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moon Valley (5) final time
14/16 – Received Eight or fewer races earlier than
14/16 – Winners from stall 5 or increased
14/16 – Profitable distance – 2 lengths or much less
11/16 – Had raced inside the final 2 weeks
11/16 – Positioned within the prime Three final day out
10/16 – Received by a AUS-based horse
10/16 – Aged 5 or older
10/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or increased
10/16 – Had raced at Flemington Park earlier than (7 received there)
10/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter within the betting
9/16 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 positioned
9/16 – Aged 6 or older
8/16 – Received by a 6 year-old
8/16 – Had received over 1m7f or additional earlier than
7/16 – Positioned favourites
4/16 – Had received simply as soon as earlier than
4/16 – Received final day out
3/16 – Profitable favourites
3/16 – Had raced in a earlier Melbourne Cup
2/16 – French-trained winners
2/16 – English/Irish winners
The typical profitable SP within the final 16 runnings is 18/1